The Delphi Process is a technique that uses iterative rounds of consensus development across a group of experts to arrive at a forecast of the most probable outcome for some future state. In the context of product development, you can use this forecasting method to help determine the likelihood of success for a new product or service. The Delphi Process begins with a group of experts who each estimate the outcome in question. These estimates are then anonymous and averaged, and the experts are allowed to revise their estimates based on the average. This process is repeated until there is agreement among the experts about the most likely outcome. The Delphi Process can be helpful for product development decisions because it helps to avoid sunk cost fallacy and can provide a more accurate forecast than relying on a single individual's opinion. However, it is essential to note that the Delphi Process is imperfect and should not be used as the sole basis for making decisions.

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